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With Chinese growth somewhat stabilising and an uptick in US growth, it’s expected that Q2 global growth will have increased to 2.5% q-o-q on an annualised basis. This is despite the general slowdown in economic activity that continues to occur in many emerging economies, partially driven by the ongoing decline in commodity prices;
Current leading indicators are somewhat mixed, but suggest that global growth has further picked up during Q3 and that the acceleration in growth that’s occurred more recently is likely to be maintained. Weak oil prices should help underpin stronger growth in developed economy consumption throughout Q4 and into Q1 2016;
In the Eurozone during the few months leading up to early-Q4, leading indicators have weakened slightly, suggesting that short-term growth expectations at a regional level should be tempered. Indeed, Q2 GDP growth was 0.3%, a little below that of Q1 and consensus expectations;
Source : AEW Europe
