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Fulfillment execution is key to realizing eCommerce’s disruptive potential. By 2016, our AlphaWise survey and global eCommerce model suggest a nearly 50% increase in penetration of retail sales, to 9.3% (from 6.5% today), surpassing $1 trillion. As the key disruptors of the past 10 years become incumbents, their continued success hinges on building scale and brand equity. Which companies will benefit? Amazon, eBay, MercadoLibre, and Rakuten should benefit as the scale-based eCommerce platform companies. Traditional retail beneficiaries include Nordstrom, Sun Art, Williams-Sonoma, and eventually Walmart. Niche online players like ASOS and Blue Nile could also prosper from the global, disruptive, long runway trend of eCommerce. For some, eCommerce is a relatively minor issue. High-end apparel and footwear, price clubs, and specialty food retailers have business models that seem less vulnerable to market share erosion from eCommerce. We put Costco in this category.
Source : Morgan Stanley