Briefing note

Pre vs post GFC occupier trends

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Take-up in the end of 2013 was still 30% below pre-crisis levels. We expect leasing activity this year to be in line with last year. The ability of the markets to satisfy large-scale enquiries will determine the end-year volume. A clear positive trend in take-up is subject to firm economic recovery, return of business financing and job creation.

In the middle of the crisis (2010) the share of largescale deals had climbed up by 18% to account for a quarter of all signed leasing transactions. In the end of 2013 their share of take-up was back to pre-crisis levels (22%) mainly due to the scarcity of suitable accommodation. The average deal size increased from 1,015 sq m in 2007 to 1,055 sq m in 2013.

Cheaper rents in CBD locations during the crisis attracted more occupiers pushing up its share of take-up to 40% in 2010 compared to 33% in 2007. As fringe locations are competing with rising incentives and higher availability of modern space compared to the CBD, occupiers are gradually returning to non-CBD locations. In 2013 the fringe accounted for 64% of take-up compared to 60% in 2010. Ongoing refurbishment projects in the CBDs will create some new supply of modern space in prime locations. In the end of 2013 the average prime CBD rent in our area was 15% below 2007 levels. By the end of 2014, we expect the average prime CBD rent to rise by 4%. Prime non-CBD rents are 47% lower than CBD and 5% lower compared to 2007. We predict that prime non-CBD rents should remain broadly stable during 2014.

TMT and Distribution and Retail sectors have increased their shares in take-up during the period 2007-2013 from 15% to 19% and from 6% to 9% respectively. We expect the rising importance of these sectors in the economy and in the property market to continue.

Source : Savills

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Mots-clés : Savills