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The recent turmoil in emerging markets (EM) has been ascribed to the wind back of quantitative easing in the US, commonly called tapering. Hot money, it is argued, is flowing out of risky emerging markets back into dollar assets which look set, on the back of economic growth and currency appreciation, to perform well.
Whatever the cause of EM volatility, events have focussed attention on the pace of tapering and the upward pressure on the short end of the US yield curve. In our view, there is a strong argument that the US needs to maintain its QE programme. If it has to be wound down for ‘political reasons’ short rates will stay lower for longer than markets expect.
Source : Grosvenor