Research Report

Global Real Estate Strategic Outlook

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There are a number of key macroeconomic themes and events that underpin our views of global property markets. The first is the divergence in central bank policies around the globe. The decoupling of policies has been underway for more than a year but has become more apparent in the past few months when the United States experienced its first rate hike since 2006 while the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and several other smaller European central banks moved to negative interest rates. The difference in central bank policy rates poses a particular problem for the U.S. Fed. While the U.S. economy is showing positive signs in the form of low unemployment, wage growth and household consumption, the Fed wants to ensure it reduces the risk of inflation exceeding its 2% inflation target. However if they raise policy interest rates too fast, that can cause the U.S. dollar to strengthen, thereby resulting in weakness in the global economy. Notwithstanding U.S. policy implications, Quantitative Easing (QE) in Europe and Japan is having a positive impact on real estate fundamentals while also causing initial real estate yields relative to sovereign bond rates to widen.

Source : Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management

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