Draghi‘s Dilemma: North-South-Gap Grows

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There seem few reasons to dispute the fact that access to corporate credit is still difficult in some EU countries. Nevertheless, ECB measures announced 5 June 2014 have been subject to controversial debate. Though corporate credit still declines, the ECB has reported an improving growth rate for the Eurozone (EU18) since the low point in 11/2013. Corporate credit is, however, currently still shrinking by 2.6% pa (most recent ECB data point for 05/2014), but this compares to a decline of 3.8% at the cyclical low point. Effectively the volume of unadjusted corporate credit stock still shrinks by EUR148bn pa. As per Chart 1 loan growth seems to be improving relatively strongly. Especially the most recent improvements in 04/2014 and 05/2014 prompt the question, whether the ECB measures are too late from a corporate lending perspective and run behind an already ongoing recovery in the credit (growth) cycle. The ECB measures might in this case be at best unnecessary or even worse: Pro-clycical.

Source : Barkow Consulting 

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Mots-clés : Barkow Consulting