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The global economy is relatively healthy, despite the fact that in most major economies domestic demand is expanding at a rate below its 10-year (or longer) average. This is nothing to get excited about, but in the US, in Europe, and in China, household demand is expanding at a steady rate and inflation expectations are picking up. This trend is led by the most flexible economies that first started to expand – the US and the UK – while those advanced economies more tightly linked to commodities such as Australia and Canada are lagging. Emerging markets with home-grown challenges like Brazil and Russia are exceptions. And Japan continues to struggle with low real wage growth and anemic retail sales growth. Regardless, the virtuous circle of job creation → wage growth → consumer spending → more job creation is becoming embedded in a broader swathe of economies, particularly in Europe. This is a positive dynamic for real estate.
Source : UBS AG
