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China recently saw its five-yearly Communist Party Congress take place with leadership continuity and consolidation of power being the notable outcomes. President Xi Jinping continues at the helm of the world’s most populous nation and second largest economy. This has been our base case expectation for some time and is notable in a world where political risks and surprises have been plentiful and where political leadership uncertainty/fragility defines several countries. A new committee has been formed to better identify financial risks, and this new, Cabinet-level regulatory body named the “National Committee for Overseeing Financial Stability and Development” convened in early November for its first plenary meeting. The Consensus Economics mean forecast of GDP growth for this year, 6.8%, is above the official target of 6.5%, and the authorities are selectively slowing credit growth and deleveraging yet still striking a balance with a sensible rate of growth. Given the huge need for stability in the run-up to this Congress, we have long expected this year to deliver just that
Source : CBRE Global Investors
