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The U.S. economy is nothing if not resilient. The economy has weathered multiple challenges in the last few months, some more threatening than others. Fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, sequestration, continuing resolutions and other budgetary nomenclature has generated a frenzy of media noise and punditry on what ails the U.S. economy and how political shenanigans are endangering it. The “real” economy, on the other hand, is shrugging off the doubts being cast on its ability to rev up its recovery and is chugging ahead. The U.S. is in better shape than most developed economies. It is further along in its deleveraging, has a stronger banking sector and is the only one with the ability to generate a steady pace of job growth.
Although the economy barely grew in the fourth quarter (0.4%), it was mostly due to one-time factors (depletion of inventories, defense cuts) and does not signal an oncoming recession. A set of broader leading indicators (the ISM indices for Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) are trending well above the 50 mark, which is the threshold for continued expansion. Evidence that strengthening ISM indices are not a fluke is supplied by positive trends in durable goods orders, industrial production and business investment. An upswing in auto and home sales is boosting the manufacturing sector.
Source : CBRE Global Investors
