The latest GDP data confirms that the Swedish economy has continued to grow stable this winter. Growth is driven primarily by domestic demand, spurred by low interest rates and a strong housing market. The consensus of economic forecasters expects GDP to growth by 2.7% in 2014 after 1.0% in 2013, and to continue to grow by 3.1% in 2015.
Employment in office intensive sectors in Stockholm was weak in Q4 2012 and 2013, but a positive trend returned in Q2 and Q3 with 1.7% and 2.6% growth respectively. At present office demand is rather muted with lengthy decision making processes. Several companies move offices because they need to reduce their space.
The office supply pipeline for the next three years corresponds to 3.4% of the total existing office stock in Greater Stockholm.
Normally there is a lag before general economic trends reach the occupier market and affect the demand side. Recent encouraging OIS jobs statistics suggest that demand should continue to recover in the short term and gather more strength over the course of the year.
In the short term though we believe rental uplifts will be limited. However, thanks to a narrow supply pipeline and a vacancy rate that is also fairly low, at least in attractive locations, we expect prime rents to be able to hold up better than would otherwise be the case. The medium term outlook for rental growth for Stockholm is good.
Source : DTZ (Groupe UGL)