The Q3 2015 RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor results show sentiment becoming slightly more cautious in a number of markets, while, in several others, confidence remains buoyant as both occupier and investment market activity continues to grow. These general themes are in keeping with the mixed global macro news flow of late, with emerging markets struggling against slowing economic growth, and the performance of advanced economies generally a little stronger than in recent years.
Feedback from respondents based in Portugal, Ireland and Japan was particularly upbeat during Q3, with the Monitor’s composite measure of occupier (OSI) and investment (ISI) market conditions signalling a sharp rate of improvement across each nation. Indeed, given the strong economic momentum in Ireland (GDP rose by around 5% in 2014), and the sustained recovery in Portugal, it is unsurprising that confidence is elevated in these markets. What’s more, credit conditions are widely reported to have relaxed over the past few quarters, on the back of ongoing monetary policy easing by the ECB. For Japan, although economic trends are volatile at present, unemployment has fallen below 3.5% (pushing vacancy rates down) and the BoJ continues to inject liquidity into the financial system, both of which appear to be driving the commercial real estate sector. Accordingly, commercial property in each country is expected to post significant capital value and rental gains over the next twelve months.
Source : RICS