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Behind the headlines of the crisis in Greece, the eurozone economy has produced some encouraging indicators in 2Q15, which suggests that it is moving into a phase of sustainable economic growth. GDP is forecast to grow by 0.5% quarter-on quarter (QOQ), and by 1.5% year-on-year (YOY) in 2015, which would be better than the 1.3% growth forecast at the start of the year. Encouragingly, the consumer sector remained buoyant in 2Q despite a rise in inflation, suggesting the recent strength is sustainable and not purely driven by the fall in energy prices. Monthly export data has also been strong despite the slowdown in emerging markets, as the weak euro has improved the competitiveness of eurozone goods. There are also tentative signs of strengthening in the labor market, with the number of people in full-time employment growing again and expected to increase by 0.8% YOY in 2Q15. As a result unemployment has been edging down, falling from 11.5% at the end of 2014 to 11.1% at the end of the quarter; however, in Southern Europe the rate remains much higher.
Source : UBS AG
