Towards the end of 2015 and into Q1 2016 there have been an increasing number of commentators speculating that the world economy is on the cusp of a new recession, triggered by slowing emerging market economies. The IMF has stated that such a downturn is a material risk and financial markets' sentiment has continued to deteriorate into 2016, with some equities markets becoming more volatile;
Despite this negative sentiment and leading indicators moving lower in recent months, growth is likely to remain resilient in the US and Europe, and most developed economies are likely to register positive growth throughout 2016;
China, which has been the epicentre of recent investor concern, has seen its leading indicators stabilise over recent months after the dramatic weakening early this year. Similarly, world trade appears to be stabilising, after a short period of deterioration during mid-2015.
Source : AEW Europe