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April Investment Strategy - Counting on economic cycle extenders

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April Investment Strategy - Counting on economic cycle extenders

As political risks in France (hopefully) continue to recede (according to our 6-49 model, the risk of a disruptive result in the French elections remains broadly stable when adding up the estimated probabilities of candidates with a probable negative market impact), markets should start getting to better grips with the economic news-flow. In our previous Monthly Investment Strategy (MIS), we highlighted that in our view the respectable performance of the global economy had been clouded by the political outlook and was, thus not yet reflected in market prices. In this MIS, we focus on the cycle, and in particular, on our belief that this particular global cycle may last longer than usual. This view is however predicated on three things, namely the slowness of the recovery, the lag between the euro and the US cycle and a cautious policy stance, with a heavy hand on fine tuning from central banks. Looking at the investment backdrop, this leads us to confirm our modest risk appetite, with a twist towards Europe.

Source : AXA Real Estate

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