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European Research Monthly Update

France to lead European recovery

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・France is projected to post a strong increase in GDP growth in the next five years, while German and UK growth is shifting down in the same period. 

・Consumer sentiment in France has also improved markedly over the last four years with strong GDP growth prospects. We expect that consumer sentiment catch up with the Eurozone over the next years. 

・Similar to GDP, French employment growth is forecast to increase to 2022, while at the same time German and UK employment growth are decreasing. Adoption of structural labour market reforms could further lift this growth. 

・Prime office rents across the 11 French markets are forecast to have strong rental growth from 2018 to 2022, as a result of this positive macroeconomic outlook and improving consumer sentiment. 

・French office rents have been more resilient than most other markets in the aftermath of  the Global Financial Crisis and are only beaten by a Berlin-dominated German average.

・Office vacancy rates are expected to steadily decline to below 6% after 2017 in France, which compares to the European average remaining below 8%. The French office vacancy rates have proved  more stable since 2000.

・Despite continued concerns on e-commerce, prime high street rents are forecasted to grow faster than office rents and French retail rental growth is ahead of both the European and German growth over the next five years.

Source : AEW Europe

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