Forecasting in the aftermath of the Brexit vote is difficult, but its impact on the property market is considerably less than that of the credit crunch.
By the time we publish this document 3,375 days will have passed since the onset of the credit crunch. That event has had by far the single biggest impact on the UK housing market in my adult life.
It is the source of the ultra low interest rate environment off which the London housing market has fed (in a way other markets have not). It carries responsibility for the much lower transaction environment, in which people now trade up the housing ladder less often. It was the catalyst for the mortgage regulation that has entrenched the divide between the haves and have nots.
By contrast, when we release the housing market forecasts contained in this report, 134 days will have passed since the EU referendum decision. The Brexit vote makes forecasting more perilous than usual. It also has the capacity to shape the market over the next five years. But in terms of its impact, it’s not comparable to the events of the late summer of 2007.
Source : Savills