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As 2015 begins, the US economy is approaching self-sustaining expansion. Economic momentum should be positive, supporting commercial real estate income growth even as interest rate movements attract increasing focus.
With more jobs, higher incomes, stronger balance sheets and renewed confidence, US consumer spending should remain buoyant. A steep decline in energy costs will likely boost buying power in the short term. The corporate sector should respond to more expensive labor by increasing capital investment.
Three primary wildcards restrain the potential for stronger growth: 1) lingering effects of the Global Financial Crisis; 2) under-performance in the residential housing market; 3) global decoupling, the contrast between the US economy and weak growth in much of the world. If the outlook progresses as we expect, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year.
Source : UBS AG