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U.S. Watch

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U.S. Watch

The year ended with one of the most anticipated events of 2015. No, not the sinking of the Trump candidacy from the presidential run, but the more consequential and impactful end of the zero-interest-rate-policy. Already priced in, the fi rst hike did not set off any seismic activity in world fi nancial markets but it did cause talking heads on cable TV to switch from speculating about the fi rst fed hike to how many hikes in 2016. More Fed hikes are not the only anticipated events for 2016. This year promises to be the year when the mismatched growth trends in GDP, productivity, jobs and wages are expected to get better aligned, meaning more wage gains and infl ationary pressures. This will be the year when the promised era of full employment with a sub-5% unemployment rate, will be a reality. This will be the year when the economic expansion will start running into capacity constraints. This will also be the year when the housing recovery gains more momentum as access to credit and confi dence among households improves. Hopes for a 2016 with a better outlook for the global economy, trade fl ows and the end of the commodities freefall are also not too wildly optimistic. An end to confl ict and displaced communities? Maybe in 2017.

Source : CBRE Global Investors

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