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After the lean years of the financial and economic crisis, insurers can now look ahead with a renewed sense of confidence: whereas in the years since 2008, global life and P&C insurance premiums have only been growing at a rate of 3.1 percent a year (in both nominal terms and after adjustments for exchange rate effects), growth is tipped to pick up to 5.9 percent over the next decade. This upswing will be due primarily to the global economy's return to normal growth and inflation rates.
The recovery will be driven mainly by the world's developed countries, with a particularly pronounced upturn on the cards for Western Europe: after zero growth in the period between 2008 and 2016, premium growth is expected to bounce back to just under 3 percent a year on average in the years leading up to 2027. In North America, we expect market growth to double from 1.9 percent to 3.7 percent. In many emerging markets, on the other hand, we predict slightly slower growth, albeit still at a much higher level than in the developed world. The Latin American region and a large number of Asian emerging markets, for example, are likely to continue reporting double-digit growth rates over the next ten years, with the Chinese insurance market leading the pack. This means that one in three euros of additional premiums will be earned in China during this period.
Source : Allianz
