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Steady demand growth, with Europe and Japan historically strong.
Lack of investment and real income growth are notable challenges.
Real estate still in demand; prices tightening but slower than in the past.
Income is the main driver of returns, but what income is safe?
“Steady as she goes” is widely accepted as a nautical order instructing the helm to maintain the present compass course. It could be a suitable metaphor for the global economy in 2017 and into next year. We have had repeated quarters of, if not spectacular, then steady expansion. There have been pleasant surprises: the health of the eurozone and, to a certain extent Japan; emerging markets are picking up pace, although China’s ongoing transition will inevitably lead to shallower rates of growth than has been the norm; and some sort of US fiscal expansion is likely, though not on the scale of the initial Trump aspirations. For the advanced economies, the pace of growth is above the post-Global Financial Crisis decade and for some even ahead of the pace of the last 20 years (see chart 1). Insofar as it goes, this is a positive environment for real estate demand given there has been steady employment growth and rising corporate profits.
Source : UBS AG